Executive Overview
The political landscape of Western Europe is undergoing a seismic shift, characterized by the steady erosion of traditional centrist coalitions and the meteoric rise of populist, nationalist political movements. At the epicenter of this transformation is Germany—long considered the ultimate anchor of European stability, institutional continuity, and postwar consensus. Within this evolving framework, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has emerged not merely as a temporary protest vote, but as a structural, enduring fixture of the German parliamentary and cultural terrain.
In a recent episode of The Editor’s Desk, host R. R. Reno sat down with distinguished journalist and author Christopher Caldwell to dissect the profound arguments presented in Caldwell’s landmark essay, “Why the AfD Wins,” featured in the October 2026 issue of First Things. The conversation delves far beyond superficial election tallies and campaign tactics, examining the deep-seated socioeconomic grievances, cultural anxieties, and institutional disconnects that fuel the party’s ongoing ascendancy.
As traditional parties grapple with deindustrialization, shifting demographic realities, and a pervasive sense of democratic disenfranchisement among the working and middle classes, the AfD has successfully positioned itself as the primary vehicle for political dissent. This in-depth report explores the core themes of the Caldwell-Reno discussion, contextualizing the AfD’s rise within the broader canvas of contemporary European geopolitics, economic restructuring, and ideological polarization.
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Detailed Chronology: From Euroskeptic Fringe to Mainstream Political Force
To understand why the AfD continues to secure electoral victories and expand its base of support, one must trace the trajectory of the party from its academic origins to its current status as a formidable electoral powerhouse. The evolution of the AfD reflects a broader metamorphosis across Western democracies, where foundational political realignments are redrawing the map.
2013–2015: The Genesis of Euroskepticism and the Refugee Crisis
The AfD was founded in April 2013, initially emerging as an intellectual, economically conservative, and distinctly Euroskeptic movement. Spearheaded largely by academics, economists, and disillusioned former members of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the party’s early platform focused primarily on opposition to the European Union’s bailout packages for debt-ridden southern eurozone economies, such as Greece.
However, the defining inflection point for the party occurred in 2015 during the European migrant crisis. As Chancellor Merkel made the fateful decision to welcome over one million asylum seekers, predominantly from war-torn regions in the Middle East, the AfD underwent a rapid ideological pivot. Under the leadership of figures who capitalized on public anxieties regarding national identity, border security, and cultural integration, the party transitioned from a single-issue economic critique group into a staunchly anti-immigration, nationalist movement. This shift galvanized a segment of the electorate that felt entirely unrepresented by the prevailing bipartisan consensus of the CDU and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD).
2017–2021: Parliamentary Breakthrough and Internal Strife
In the 2017 federal election, the AfD stunned the political establishment by capturing 12.6% of the national vote, securing 94 seats in the Bundestag and officially entering the federal parliament for the first time. This breakthrough shattered a decades-long taboo in German politics regarding the parliamentary representation of parties to the right of the Christian Democrats.
The subsequent legislative term was marked by fierce internal power struggles between the party’s more moderate, economically liberal factions and its increasingly radical nationalist wing—often referred to as Der Flügel (The Wing), led by controversial regional figure Björn Höcke. Despite periodic internal purges, public infighting, and heightened scrutiny from Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz), the party maintained a resilient core of support. By tapping into persistent regional disparities—particularly between the affluent western states and the post-industrial eastern Länder—the AfD cemented its status as a permanent structural opposition.
2022–Present: The Perfect Storm of Economic Pressures and Institutional Realignment
Entering the mid-2020s, the AfD benefited immensely from a convergence of systemic crises facing Germany and the wider European Union. The fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by the acute energy shock and inflationary spiral triggered by the war in Ukraine and the subsequent severing of Russian natural gas supplies, placed unprecedented strain on the German economic model.
Germany’s foundational industrial pillars—imbued with energy-intensive manufacturing, automotive supremacy, and robust export capabilities—began to falter under the weight of surging electricity costs and stringent environmental regulations. As real wages stagnated and public infrastructure showed visible signs of strain, the AfD successfully weaponized public discontent regarding green transition policies, immigration levels, and foreign policy orthodoxies. The party’s consistent electoral gains in regional state elections throughout 2024, 2025, and into 2026 demonstrated that its appeal had transcended transient protest, embedding itself deeply into the fabric of German civic life.
Supporting Context & Metrics: Unpacking the Socioeconomic Drivers
As Christopher Caldwell elucidates in his conversation with R. R. Reno, the enduring success of the AfD cannot be understood through the lens of political deviance or ephemeral populism. Instead, it is the logical byproduct of profound structural tensions within modern Western governance. Several key metrics and socio-cultural shifts illuminate why the AfD continues to win over segments of the electorate.
The East-West Divide and the Crisis of Trust
One of the most striking metrics defining German politics is the persistent socio-economic and political divide between the former West Germany and the former communist German Democratic Republic (GDR) in the East. While billions of euros have been channeled into eastern infrastructure since reunification in 1990, deep disparities in wealth accumulation, wage levels, ownership of major corporations, and institutional representation remain pronounced.
In states such as Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg, the AfD has regularly polled as the leading political force or a formidable runner-up. Caldwell and Reno discuss how eastern Germans harbor a distinct historical memory regarding state authority, media messaging, and systemic transformation. Having experienced the sudden, total collapse of one political and economic order in 1989, eastern populations exhibit a higher degree of skepticism toward institutional narratives propagated by mainstream media and legacy political parties. When contemporary institutions demand compliance on contentious issues—ranging from pandemic restrictions and energy policies to mass migration—eastern voters have proven far more willing to voice systemic dissent at the ballot box.
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| KEY DRIVERS OF AFD ELECTORAL GROWTH |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| 1. Economic Deindustrialization: Surging energy costs and over- |
| regulation threatening Germany’s core manufacturing base. |
| 2. Demographic & Cultural Anxiety: Ongoing debates over integration, |
| national identity, and border sovereignty. |
| 3. Institutional Disconnect: Growing perception that the traditional |
| parties (CDU/SPD/Greens) form an unresponsive, homogeneous cartel. |
| 4. Historical Memory (East Germany): Greater skepticism of official |
| state narratives and willingness to challenge political orthodoxies. |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+The Breakdown of the "Firewall" (Brandmauer)
For years, mainstream German political parties maintained a strict cordon sanitaire—known as the Brandmauer (firewall)—refusing to form coalitions, cooperate, or engage in parliamentary normalization with the AfD at any level of government. However, as Caldwell notes, the sheer persistence of the party’s electoral mandate has strained this defensive architecture.
In numerous local councils and municipal governments across eastern Germany, the mathematical reality of fragmented electorates has made governing without some form of accommodation increasingly difficult. The refusal of centrist parties to address the root grievances of AfD voters has not diminished the party’s support; rather, it has often reinforced the populist narrative that an out-of-touch political elite is actively subverting the democratic will of ordinary citizens.
Official Statements and Critical Perspectives
The discourse surrounding the rise of the AfD touches upon fundamental questions concerning the health of liberal democracy, the boundaries of free speech, and the responsibilities of political elites.
Mainstream political leaders in Berlin continue to characterize the AfD as an existential threat to Germany’s constitutional order. In recent public addresses, senior officials from the ruling coalition and the Christian Democratic opposition have emphasized the necessity of defending democratic institutions against what they term extremist subversion. Government representatives point to ongoing monitoring of certain regional AfD factions by domestic intelligence services as empirical proof of the party’s incompatibility with democratic norms.
Conversely, intellectuals, conservative analysts, and figures aligned with the perspective articulated by Caldwell and Reno offer a more diagnostic critique of the political establishment. They argue that the criminalization or ostracization of populist movements fails to address the legitimate grievances that give rise to them. In their view, the AfD wins precisely because legacy parties have abandoned traditional working-class constituencies in favor of urban, cosmopolitan, technocratic agendas.
During their discussion on The Editor’s Desk, Reno and Caldwell explore the paradox of modern liberalism: while institutions frequently invoke democratic values to marginalize populist movements, their refusal to alter policies on immigration, deindustrialization, and national sovereignty deepens the democratic deficit. By insulating key policy areas from genuine electoral contestation—often by deferring to supranational European Union mandates or judicial rulings—the political center inadvertently fuels the very radicalization it seeks to prevent.
Future Outlook: The Long-Term Implications for Germany and Europe
As Europe looks toward the remainder of the decade, the trajectory of the Alternative for Germany holds monumental stakes not only for Berlin, but for the entire European integration project.
1. The Normalization of Right-Wing Populism
The primary takeaway from Caldwell’s analysis is that the AfD is not a passing storm, but a permanent institutional actor. Even if internal scandals or legal pressures occasionally buffet the party, the social constituencies supporting it—disaffected industrial workers, cultural traditionalists, and citizens disillusioned with rapid globalization—are not going to disappear. Over the coming years, political analysts expect the AfD to institutionalize its presence further, potentially forcing mainstream conservative parties into difficult strategic calculations regarding future coalition-building.
2. Contagion Effects Across the Continent
Germany’s political realignment mirrors concurrent shifts across Western and Southern Europe. From the electoral triumphs of nationalist movements in France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Austria, a broader continental pattern has emerged. As the economic models of post-industrial welfare states face structural headwinds, the political center across Europe is finding it increasingly difficult to hold. The normalisation of the AfD in Germany signals that no nation, regardless of its historical aversion to nationalism, is immune to these tectonic political shifts.
3. The Crisis of Technocratic Governance
Ultimately, the rise of the AfD poses a fundamental question regarding the future of Western governance: Can technocratic, managerial states adapt to populist pressures through democratic responsiveness, or will they double down on institutional exclusion?
As Christopher Caldwell outlines in his seminal essay, the persistence of the AfD is a symptom of a deeper malaise—a crisis of legitimacy within modern states that have lost touch with the organic bonds of nationhood, community, and economic security. Until mainstream political establishments confront these foundational realities head-on, populist movements like the AfD will continue to rewrite the rules of Western politics, ensuring that the debate over national sovereignty, economic survival, and democratic accountability remains at the very center of public life for years to come.
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